3.3% Growth: Is Bangladesh on the Brink of Bankruptcy?

The latest South Asia Development Update by the World Bank paints not just a worrying, but an outright alarming picture for Bangladesh. According to the report, the country’s GDP growth for the 2024–25 fiscal year is projected to fall to just 3.3%. This isn’t just a statistic—it’s a red flag signaling looming economic collapse.

Behind this sharp decline lies a toxic mix of political instability, violence, state repression, and above all, the utter failure of an illegitimate authoritarian regime that seized power through violence. A country remains stable only when its government rests on the legitimate mandate of its people. But in Bangladesh, the reality is the opposite—power has been grabbed by force, elections reduced to farce, dissent crushed, and an iron-fisted rule established.

The consequences are clear. Private sector credit growth has plummeted to a 30-year low—only 7.3%. That means entrepreneurs are no longer interested in investing, as they have no trust in the business climate under this regime, which is unstable, unpredictable, and suppressive. The public sector is no better off—capital expenditure has declined, development projects are stalled, and administrative inefficiency is rampant. Altogether, the economic engine is grinding to a halt.

Even marginal improvements in the external sector or the narrowing of the current account deficit can’t salvage the broader picture. The rot runs deep. If the very core of the economy—political stability, transparent policymaking, judicial independence, and public trust—is destroyed, no temporary indicator will be able to save the nation.

Compared to the rest of South Asia, Bangladesh is rapidly falling behind. Even countries like India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka—each facing their own challenges—are either ahead or attempting a recovery. Bangladesh, meanwhile, is indulging in complacency, propaganda, and intensified repression of an already impoverished population.

The most pressing question now is—who will be held accountable for this collapse? Do those at the helm of power even realize that they are driving an entire nation to the edge of ruin? Unless this question is answered—and unless governance is returned to the hands of the people—Bangladesh is headed for even darker times.

The country may not yet be officially bankrupt, but its foundations are crumbling. And this is happening at the hands of a deliberately installed regime of occupation.